90. The Fermi Paradox

The Fermi Paradox is the contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial civilizations existing and the lack of observational evidence to support them.

Given the sheer number of stars in the observable universe (trillions) and the high probability that Earth is not unique in harboring life, many scientists believe the cosmos should be teeming with intelligent species. Yet, we have found no conclusive evidence (like signals, probes, or structures) of extraterrestrial life.

Some Proposed Solutions (The Great Filter):

One popular hypothesis to explain this is "The Great Filter." This suggests there is a crucial evolutionary barrier that prevents life from evolving to the point of interstellar travel.

Filter is Behind Us: The difficult step was the formation of life itself (abiogenesis) or the development of complex, multi-cellular life. If this is true, humanity is rare and has a high chance of surviving.

Filter is Ahead of Us: The difficult step is yet to come. This could be a recurring, self-inflicted catastrophe that destroys advanced civilizations (e.g., nuclear war, uncontrolled artificial intelligence, or environmental collapse) before they can expand into the galaxy. This view is unsettling, as it suggests our own doom is probable.

Question:

Which explanation for the Fermi Paradox do you find more compelling: that life is extremely rare (The Filter is behind us), or that all advanced civilizations eventually destroy themselves (The Filter is ahead of us)? Why?